How Many Elios do you think will be made in year one?

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How Many Elios do you think will be made in year one?

Postby ElioJay » Sun Aug 25, 2013 1:25 pm

Reading through that rather negative article, a few interesting things can be culled. It supposedly includes a spreadsheet (allegedly) presented the Caddo Commission with production numbers and estimated costs. In that presentation the first year production was stated as 68,333. First I have no idea if the spreadsheet is legit or a hoax, but non-the less, what do you think of that number?

Early on when there were about 250 non-refundable deposits somewhere I read Elio said that had over a 1000 deposits.... so that says that the total of all levels was about 4 times the $1000 total.... that would put total deposits at about the 5000 right now... but I have to believe it is higher with the addition of the refundable deposits. Has anyone seen Elio state a number of total deposits?
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Re: How Many Elios do you think will be made in year one?

Postby Pauljr » Sun Aug 25, 2013 1:38 pm

Sounds reasonable to me.
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Re: How Many Elios do you think will be made in year one?

Postby kerbe » Sun Aug 25, 2013 7:28 pm

If you consider 52 weeks in a year and each week with 5 work-days - and deduct a few for holidays and weather-related closings - that comes to about 270 units a day, or 17 vehicles per hour over two eight-hour shifts.
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Re: How Many Elios do you think will be made in year one?

Postby rogwild » Sun Aug 25, 2013 9:07 pm

Henry Ford's assembly line; “reduced the time it took to build a car from more than 12 hours to two hours and 30 minutes” (they built over 10 MILLION Model T's); “ Eventually, new Model Ts would be rolling off the line at rates as high as one every 10 seconds. “ So Elio Motors 'should' be able to meet any DEMAND, after they get up and running.
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Re: How Many Elios do you think will be made in year one?

Postby lt1 » Mon Aug 26, 2013 11:47 pm

If they can produce and sell 40-50k units the first year, there is a good chance of long-term success. I would consider 65-70k units a resounding success. Of course, I am referring to the first 12 months of production, not the first model year. If production actually starts in July, and they ramp up quickly, I would still only expect 15-20k vehicles produced in 2014. My suspicion is that 3rd quarter production will mean that a few models start rolling off the lines in mid-September, and that we won't see significant production before December. As I understand it, there are between 3-5k reservations currently. I believe that a serious effort will be made to get all the pre-production reservations filled before the end of 2014. We should have a better idea of the status by the end of this year.
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Re: How Many Elios do you think will be made in year one?

Postby Bisbee Kid » Tue Aug 27, 2013 4:45 pm

ElioJay wrote:Reading through that rather negative article, a few interesting things can be culled. It supposedly includes a spreadsheet (allegedly) presented the Caddo Commission with production numbers and estimated costs. In that presentation the first year production was stated as 68,333. First I have no idea if the spreadsheet is legit or a hoax, but non-the less, what do you think of that number?

Early on when there were about 250 non-refundable deposits somewhere I read Elio said that had over a 1000 deposits.... so that says that the total of all levels was about 4 times the $1000 total.... that would put total deposits at about the 5000 right now... but I have to believe it is higher with the addition of the refundable deposits. Has anyone seen Elio state a number of total deposits?


I posted the same question about how many actual "ALL IN" $1000 DEPOSITS there are and I don't believe we will see an actual answer. The reason, (and I really and truly hope they make it), is if enough real orders can be made to fill the first 3 months of production capability then there is a real fighting chance that they will make it. Having that large of a order supply would give the first year a good go. So if production capabilities are 200 per day on a 22 day month
that would give you 4400 units per month. Having roughly 13,000 orders to fill in 3 months is a viable operation. That would put enough on the road with the additional 2nd tier level orders to really get some attention. If that could be sustained for a year you are looking at 52-53K units in a year. Not shabby at all, may be less than that spread sheet BS but I think really workable. My biggest question isn't selling them, it is the service and support. That infrastructure is going to be the most challenging and chaotic part to organize. Even in the automotive dealership world when a new dealer opens selling is not hard it is the service and support and all the needs that are hard to gauge. Having outside companies do the warranty support is going to be a major logistical nightmare. Convincing an outside service organization it is in their best interest to help a customer that has no financial ties to them and has a vehicle that has a value much less than some of their regular repair orders is going to be interesting.
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Re: How Many Elios do you think will be made in year one?

Postby rogwild » Tue Aug 27, 2013 9:33 pm

On the 'Service and Support' side, I don't see a problem if a major service provider, like Midas (with over 2,000 locations) gets the contract. Their workers will get the same hourly wage, if they are working on a $100,000 Mercedes as on a $6,800 Elio. Except their 'markup' on the PARTS won't be as great as on the expensive cars, Elio problems should be EASY and CHEAP to fix.
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Re: How Many Elios do you think will be made in year one?

Postby Bisbee Kid » Wed Aug 28, 2013 5:07 pm

rogwild wrote:On the 'Service and Support' side, I don't see a problem if a major service provider, like Midas (with over 2,000 locations) gets the contract. Their workers will get the same hourly wage, if they are working on a $100,000 Mercedes as on a $6,800 Elio. Except their 'markup' on the PARTS won't be as great as on the expensive cars, Elio problems should be EASY and CHEAP to fix.


Yes if it was even services, but example oil service on a BMW or Mercedes usually pays the technician 1.2 to 1.5 hrs. X their rate. Elio oil service .3 hr.
maybe .5 X their rate. Both will generally take around the same time in pulling in, getting parts (putting the Elio on the lift will not happen easily) so the technician will have to crawl which will not make him enthusiastic to service it, and both will in total time take about the same amount of time. All technicians no matter what they work on look to flag as many hours possible in the shortest time possible. Years of training, good tools, good technique, knowing how something comes apart and all the little tricks to make the job easier is what they gravitate to. That is why so many specialize in their particular lines even to the point where even in a dealership there are specialized techs for only certain types of repairs. Trim techs do not want to have anything to do with heavy line (engine & transmission) jobs, front end and brake techs don't do engine and trans work and very few of then like to tackle electrical issues even though in todays cars all the specialized area have electrical components. Electrical work, trim work, wind and rattle noises, fitment, transmission repairs will be new and take more time than a regular car. Many shops including Midas will not work on anything out of their skill set. I get these calls every day many times from shops that are 100's of miles away because there is no dealer in their area. All of my technicians have seen the Elio website & we have talked at great lengths about it they like it, all say it way to under powered (3 of the 4 are in the 20's) myself and the eldest tech (in his 50's) are not worried about power but he has said he wouldn't work on it. He pointed out on important item on the warranty side is the flag time for a major repair such as a major engine repair may exceed the value of the Elio. Engine repair example is say 15 hrs X $80 shop rate is $1200 just labor plus say the same in parts gives you $2400 out in a single repair. Normal depreciation schedule that would exceed the value of the unit in the 3rd year just for that repair and that would most likely major repairs would come up. Clutch replacement under 36k, warranty or not? Will not be easy either way and will be costly no matter who does it.

Most automotive technicians don't work on motorcycles, not that they can't they just choose not to because they know they can make an easier and better paycheck working on something they are familiar with and visa versa. We have several technicians in our dealership that ride motorcycles, most send then to the particular dealer to do services above a simple oil service & even at time they send those to the dealer (many times they barter with the motorcycle techs at their shop). There will be a gamete of issues to deal with when the time comes. I drive by a Midas every day at least 2 or 3 times, many times stopping in front of it waiting at the light, not once have I ever seen them service a motorcycle. I look at the variety of cars they service and compare them to the dealership service department that I run and wonder how soon someone from there will be calling me for help when they have our brand of car in. It will take a lot of support from the factory and a very detailed service plan to make sure the support is there. Repair shop owners will be the first to say is it worth my time & how much are they paying me to do the warranty repairs. That is where a motorcycle shop may be a much better choice for service but it remains to be seen. It will take a plan of action as unique as the Elio, I know many techs will like the challenge and be excited by something new and the possibility of maybe making some easier money. Schooling and technical information will be critical, specialty equipment (how to lift it for one), how to transport it from the factory will be another challenge. The regular motor carriers will not be able to since there is no standardized center beam in a large volume automotive transporter and flat bed carriers are very expensive. The part supply and distribution on the other side will be the other challenge. Making enough parts to keep the production line running without delays and supplying the service side. Is alternate transportation going to be provided while the Elio is down and if so by whom the selling dealer or service facility. There are so many real facets about servicing a vehicle that need to be addressed as the development of the Elio continues.
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Re: How Many Elios do you think will be made in year one?

Postby Jmhaircut » Wed Aug 28, 2013 6:16 pm

Bisbee Kid wrote:
rogwild wrote:On the 'Service and Support' side, I don't see a problem if a major service provider, like Midas (with over 2,000 locations) gets the contract. Their workers will get the same hourly wage, if they are working on a $100,000 Mercedes as on a $6,800 Elio. Except their 'markup' on the PARTS won't be as great as on the expensive cars, Elio problems should be EASY and CHEAP to fix.


Yes if it was even services, but example oil service on a BMW or Mercedes usually pays the technician 1.2 to 1.5 hrs. X their rate. Elio oil service .3 hr.
maybe .5 X their rate. Both will generally take around the same time in pulling in, getting parts (putting the Elio on the lift will not happen easily) so the technician will have to crawl which will not make him enthusiastic to service it, and both will in total time take about the same amount of time. All technicians no matter what they work on look to flag as many hours possible in the shortest time possible. Years of training, good tools, good technique, knowing how something comes apart and all the little tricks to make the job easier is what they gravitate to. That is why so many specialize in their particular lines even to the point where even in a dealership there are specialized techs for only certain types of repairs. Trim techs do not want to have anything to do with heavy line (engine & transmission) jobs, front end and brake techs don't do engine and trans work and very few of then like to tackle electrical issues even though in todays cars all the specialized area have electrical components. Electrical work, trim work, wind and rattle noises, fitment, transmission repairs will be new and take more time than a regular car. Many shops including Midas will not work on anything out of their skill set. I get these calls every day many times from shops that are 100's of miles away because there is no dealer in their area. All of my technicians have seen the Elio website & we have talked at great lengths about it they like it, all say it way to under powered (3 of the 4 are in the 20's) myself and the eldest tech (in his 50's) are not worried about power but he has said he wouldn't work on it. He pointed out on important item on the warranty side is the flag time for a major repair such as a major engine repair may exceed the value of the Elio. Engine repair example is say 15 hrs X $80 shop rate is $1200 just labor plus say the same in parts gives you $2400 out in a single repair. Normal depreciation schedule that would exceed the value of the unit in the 3rd year just for that repair and that would most likely major repairs would come up. Clutch replacement under 36k, warranty or not? Will not be easy either way and will be costly no matter who does it.

Most automotive technicians don't work on motorcycles, not that they can't they just choose not to because they know they can make an easier and better paycheck working on something they are familiar with and visa versa. We have several technicians in our dealership that ride motorcycles, most send then to the particular dealer to do services above a simple oil service & even at time they send those to the dealer (many times they barter with the motorcycle techs at their shop). There will be a gamete of issues to deal with when the time comes. I drive by a Midas every day at least 2 or 3 times, many times stopping in front of it waiting at the light, not once have I ever seen them service a motorcycle. I look at the variety of cars they service and compare them to the dealership service department that I run and wonder how soon someone from there will be calling me for help when they have our brand of car in. It will take a lot of support from the factory and a very detailed service plan to make sure the support is there. Repair shop owners will be the first to say is it worth my time & how much are they paying me to do the warranty repairs. That is where a motorcycle shop may be a much better choice for service but it remains to be seen. It will take a plan of action as unique as the Elio, I know many techs will like the challenge and be excited by something new and the possibility of maybe making some easier money. Schooling and technical information will be critical, specialty equipment (how to lift it for one), how to transport it from the factory will be another challenge. The regular motor carriers will not be able to since there is no standardized center beam in a large volume automotive transporter and flat bed carriers are very expensive. The part supply and distribution on the other side will be the other challenge. Making enough parts to keep the production line running without delays and supplying the service side. Is alternate transportation going to be provided while the Elio is down and if so by whom the selling dealer or service facility. There are so many real facets about servicing a vehicle that need to be addressed as the development of the Elio continues.

http://www.danwei.org/automobiles/3whee ... r_mich.php this was 2009 wonder how he doing selling these
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Re: How Many Elios do you think will be made in year one?

Postby Bisbee Kid » Wed Aug 28, 2013 6:47 pm

[.[/quote] Postby Jmhaircut » Wed Aug 28, 2013 6:16 pm
http://www.danwei.org/automobiles/3whee ... r_mich.php this was 2009 wonder how he doing selling these[/quote]

I have seen several types like this, none really have the real engineering that the Elio has. Much more forethought has gone into the Elio before it was even rolled out. There is also a Chinese bubble bike that is real cheap around $750 but how far can it really go, how safe, etc.. My Money is still in the Elio!
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